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The Interrelationship of Refugee Movements and Conflict  

The root causes of conflict and forced displacement are both interrelated and mutually reinforcing. Today’s multiple crises of climate insecurity, socioeconomic downturn, and armed violence disproportionally affect refugees and other displaced persons and contribute to dramatic increases in forced displacement. Increasing threats to global peace and security forced more people to flee than for any other reason in 2022, with 2022 also overseeing the highest increase in the number of conflict-related deaths since 2016. The ever-growing impact of conflict on forced displacement is also the result of the changing nature of war, which, over the last 30 years, has increasingly affected and targeted civilians and urban settings. Moreover, protracted, sub-national violence continues to drive displacement in addition to increasingly inhibiting the safe and dignified return and reintegration of refugees and other forcibly displaced persons. In fact, the proportion of refugees returning has trended downward since 2016. Returns of refugees and other forcibly displaced in conditions where safety, dignity, and social and economic security are lacking can create and exacerbate existing tensions. Thus, understanding and responding to the drivers of conflict is part and parcel of doing so for the drivers of forced displacement. This reality calls for greater collaboration among humanitarian, development and peace actors, including UN agencies and governments, to jointly address the needs of both conflict- and displacement-affected populations and their exacerbating factors, including the effects of climate change, political and social marginalisation, and economic exclusion.